On
Saturday night Tyson Fury will face Deontay Wilder for the second
time, in a fight that has many struggling to pick a winner. At first
glance Fury should be a clear favorite to win this time round, after
being blatantly robbed in the first match. Yet boxing is seldom that
straight forward.
In
their first meeting 14 months ago Fury entered the ring with Wilder
after three years of turmoil that had seen him wrestle with mental
illness and substance abuse which resulted in him ballooning to over
400 pounds. The very fact that Fury was climbing into the ring that
night with Wilder, having lost over 10 stone, and after just two
warm-up fights behind him in three years, was no small achievement by
itself. However few expected Tyson to last more than a few rounds
against the 'Bronze Bomber'. Even Fury's own team feared the worst.
Fury's improbable comeback was expected by the games wise heads to
come to a crashing end, leaving him to take his money and then
retreat back into boxing oblivion. Tyson though had his own ideas.
'The Gypsy King' has often stated that if he believes he can do
something strong enough in his mind, then there is nothing that can
stop him. It is a curious part of Tyson's character that despite his
well-publicized struggles with mental illness when it comes to boxing
one of his strongest assets is his mental strength. Like so many
other fighters Fury struggles far more with the world outside of the
boxing ring than the world within it.
In
his first meeting with Deontay Wilder, Fury belied the fact that he
had not engaged in a real competitive match for over 3 years, and all
the problems he had struggled against in those three years seemed a
world away as he gave Deontay Wilder a clinical boxing lesson. Indeed
the fight would have been a virtual shut-out save for two instances
in two separate rounds. The knock-downs. The first knockdown came in
the 9th round after he caught a shot to the top of the head, and
seemed to be little more than a blip for Tyson. However, the second
knock-down was something altogether different. Caught flush by a
right hand, and then a looping left, Tyson fell to the canvas like he
was out to the world. To use the cliché 'pole-axed' would not be an
exaggeration. Very seldom do fighters get up from a knock-down like
that, and even fewer rise from such knock-downs in anything like a
fit state to carry on fighting.
Fury
though has already shown that he is a unique boxer, and upon this
night he showed it in a way that will forever be embedded in his
boxing legacy long after he finally retires. In many ways that 12th
round knock-down became a symbolic microcosm of what Fury had gone
through in the previous three years since his criminally
unappreciated defeat of long time world champion Wladimir Klitschko.
Fury rose with an almost disdainful nonchalance that even seemed to
take the referee by surprise. And if the referee was surprised then
the reaction of Deontay Wilder, who for about six or seven seconds
had been celebrating his stunning come from behind victory with the
kind of posing befitting such a triumph, was a classic picture in
itself.
Wilders
surprise was multiplied as Fury not only survived his follow up
assault, but decided to go onto the attack himself, rather than stay
on the defensive. Fury even managed to shake Deontay in the last
minute of the round. In the dying seconds of the match, it was Wilder
not Fury who was holding on and happy to hear the final bell.
When
the scorecards were read out, Fury's disgust at the drawn result was
as clear to see as Wilders relief that he had managed to hang onto
his WBC world title belt. The crowd's disapproval of the decision was
also loud and clear, despite Wilder being the 'home' fighter.
In
the proceeding 14 months, speculation and interest has mounted about
the inevitable rematch between these two men, with the general
consensus amongst the unbiased being that the winner of Wilder vs
Fury 2 will have the right to declare himself the number 1
heavyweight in the world. Each man fought twice in 2019, with
Wilder's performances being more impressive. The 'Bronze Bomber'
dispatched Dominic Breazeale in 2 rounds and Luis Ortiz in the 7th,
each via an impressive knock-out. While it is frankly ludicrous to
hail Wilder as the biggest puncher in heavyweight history, (he isn't
for several reasons) there is no doubt that he carries a dangerous
punch. The problem for Wilder is that he is fairly average in all
other areas of his game, save for that monstrous punch. Yet still,
Deontay impressed especially with his stoppage of Ortiz in his last
outing, even if the knock-out overshadowed the reality that he had
been handed a pretty decisive boxing lesson by the 40+-year-old
Cuban, right up to landing the fight-ending knock-out blow.
Tyson
Fury's outings in 2019 were a little more patchy. While he impressed
in his first outing by quickly dispatching Tom Schwarz in 2 rounds,
his September match against Otto Wallin turned into perhaps the
toughest fight of his career. 'The Gypsy King' was far from being on
top form. He was flat-footed and sluggish from the start and
collected two horrendous cuts over the right eye early on which
threatened to stop the fight. Tyson ended up having to slug and maul
his way to a clear but very bloody points victory, with his
performance leaving behind it a lot of questions. Fury showed the
same kind of bravery and fighting instinct in overcoming being cut so
badly against Wallin as he did when rising from those knock-downs
against Wilder. But at the same time, his performance was worryingly
below par.
Tyson
now goes into Saturdays match with a new training team, having parted
ways with Ben Davison and reunited with Sugar Hill Steward, the
nephew of the late legendary Kronk trainer Emanuel Steward. Tyson
worked with Sugar Hill previously when he spent some time being
trained by Emanuel Steward at the Kronk gym in 2010. It was Emanuel
who predicted that Tyson Fury would be the next fighter to dominate
the heavyweight division. He also gave similar praise to Deontay
Wilder. Fury has also taken on the training services of former world
middleweight champion Andy Lee (who also happens to be his cousin).
It is a change that is meant to work on Fury's weaknesses, some of
which were exposed against Wallin, but others which were evident
against Wilder.
Was
Tyson's performance against Wallin due to him not being switched on
mentally for an opponent who he was expected to beat easily.
Throughout his career Fury has produced his best performances when he
has been up against his most demanding opposition, with his two
victories over Dereck Chisora, his world title victory over Wladimir
Klitschko, and his first fight with Wilder being the prime examples.
Yet there is also the possibility that Fury, after almost two years
of non-stop training, is becoming physically burned out. We won't
know for sure until Saturday night whether the Wallin performance was
just a blip or else an early indication of an athletic decline.
A
crucial part of this question is how successful Tyson's switching
trainers will turn out to be. Changing such a fundamental facet of
your fighting make-up just seven weeks before a big fight may seem
foolish to some, but it may also be just the kind of tweak that Tyson
needed to refresh and revitalize himself after the disappointing
Wallin performance.
Fury
has said that he has been working on improving his balance,
sharpening his jab, and putting more weight into his punches. He has
been stating regularly how this time around he will be going for a
knock-out win rather than a points victory (which he unsurprisingly
doesn't believe he can get in Las Vegas). At first, this might seem
to be a kamikaze approach to the rematch by the 'Gypsy King' but then
you remember the handful of times that Fury shook Wilder in their
first match, especially in that final round directly after Wilder had
floored him. Fury shook Wilder several times throughout the fight but
each time failed to follow up, partly due to instructions from his
corner and partly due to his own doubts about his stamina in what was
his first real fight in three years.
This
time round according to Tyson it's going to be different. He will be
far fitter than he was for the first match and he has shed the
remaining rust from his inactivity with his fights against Schwarz
and Wallin. Indeed the Otto Wallin fight could well turn out to be a
blessing in disguise as it meant that Fury got to go 12 tough rounds,
which could prove to be very good for him this coming Saturday night.
Not only will it have helped him shed any remaining rust, but it will
also have helped boost his confidence in his stamina.
Looking
at both men, the biggest contrast between them is that we know what
Wilder will do, he is a puncher and he will try and knock Fury out.
Wilder is a one-dimensional fighter, and he will fight one way only,
with the only tweak to his style recently being to employ more
patience. Against Ortiz, he waited and waited, and threw few punches,
until the final shots that put Ortiz down and out.
Tyson,
however, is far more unpredictable. Especially now that he and his
trainers are saying they will be going for a knockout win. Is it hype
or mind games? Or will Tyson really be looking to end things early?
You would think that Wilder's greatest wish is for Tyson to come
forward in the rematch and take the fight to him. Yet, on the other
hand, Wilder has never looked comfortable fighting on the back foot,
which is why he seldom does it if he can help it. If Tyson could
manage to pressure and force Wilder back then he would negate much of
Wilders punching power. Wilder also needs to be at a certain distance
to be able to throw and land his long looping and often wild shots.
If Tyson succeeds in pushing Wilder back and can pressure and crowd
him, then he will be negating much that makes Wilder such a dangerous
puncher. Wilder also cannot fight on the inside, while Fury,
surprisingly, despite his height and reach, is a very good inside
fighter.
Tyson
fury's punching power has often been underrated. He punched hard
enough to score a brutal stoppage over Dereck Chisora in their second
meeting. He also punched hard enough to gain the respect of Wladimir
Klitschko. There was a reason why Wlad was so wary of exchanging with
Tyson, and it wasn't due to Tyson not having a punch. Tyson's
knock-out ratio is very respectable when you take into account his
elusive style of fighting, (20 stoppages out of 29 victories) and the
fact that he often doesn't set himself to throw his punches with
their full weight. Throughout his career Tyson has often seemed happy
to simply out-box his opponents rather than going for the knock-out.
While
there is always the danger that a more aggressive Tyson might get
caught by another one of those Wilder bombs, there is also the chance
that Fury can get caught if he tries to out-box Wilder for 12 rounds
again. The longer the fight goes the more chance Wilder has to land
that one punch which could change everything. Then there is the
question about whether Fury can rely on receiving a fair decision in
Las Vegas. Recent history tells us that if the fight is even slightly
competitive or close, then the judges will favor the 'home' fighter
over Fury. After all, this is the world's heavyweight championship,
and certain people are desperate for an American fighter to at least
keep hold one of the world title belts.
When
you are looking at the fight like this then Fury going for a
knock-out does not seem like such a crazy strategy.
There
is also the question of Fury's legs. Since his comeback, he has never
shown quite the same nimbleness which he had earlier in his career
and especially against Klitschko. That speed and sharpness in the
legs is something which Fury is unlikely ever to totally regain. With
that in mind, it makes sense for him to tweak his style and become
more aggressive. Fury is said to be planning to weigh in at around
270- 275 pounds, this is a weight at which he has fought previously.
Tyson's record shows that when he fought at or around that weight in
previous fights he stopped 7 of his nine opponents, including Dereck
Chisora whose only other inside the distance defeat came at the hands
of Dillian Whyte in 2018.
There
remains the possibility that Fury may come out and try to out-box
Wilder just as he did in their first bout, but Fury and his new
trainers seem adamant about their strategy. They are either taking a
very bold gamble or else playing mind games with Wilder.
Fury
has certainly looked a little sturdier in recent weeks, and more
powerful in the arms and legs.
In
the town where you often have to take a gamble to have a chance of
winning, Tyson Fury is getting ready to make perhaps the biggest
gamble of his career on Saturday night. With the cards regarding a
points decision probably stacked against him, does he put all his
faith into his own hands and go for a knock-out, so that he can be
his own judge and referee.
As
we enter the final days before the fight Tyson is the slight underdog
with the oddsmakers. It is no doubt a position he will relish. Fury
is always at his best when he is the underdog, which was probably
part of his problem against Otto Wallin. The chances are that Fury
was just not fired up for a fighter he was expected to beat with
ease.
The
biggest worries for Tyson as we approach fight night must be the
match going the distance, (after all who trusts Las Vegas judges,
unless you are the home fighter?) his right eye reopening or running
into one of Deontay Wilder's right hands.
Tyson's
right eye, which was so badly cut against Wallin, looks to have
healed up exceptionally well, but there is always the danger of a cut
like that being reopened, especially against such an aggressive and
often crude fighter as Deontay Wilder. The fact that Fury will have
two cutmen in his corner on the night is proof that cuts are a worry.
Will
Wilder seek to box more in this fight and use his often neglected
jab, especially if Tyson is fighting a more aggressive fight. Wilder
has shown more patience in his recent fights but it is unlikely that
he will simply be waiting for that one punch to end the night against
a fighter of Tyson's ability. Wilder is likely to be as aggressive as
usual, perhaps even more so, as he seeks to land that big power punch
or perhaps a punch that will reopen Tyson's eye.
This
is a rematch that may well surpass the first fight for excitement and
action as both men will be even more desperate and determined to take
victory this time in a matchup which has taken on far more impact and
significance than their first encounter.
The
winner of Saturday night will be seen by most of the boxing world as
truly the number one heavyweight in the world. He will also be in the
driving seat for the long-awaited showdown with Anthony Joshua.
My
feeling regarding the result is that Tyson Fury will once again defy
logic and shock the so-called experts, but this time around he will
be granted his rightful victory, as Wilder is counted out for the
first defeat of his professional career. Its a gamble, but this may
well be one of those nights where that old cliché 'He who dares,
wins!' comes true. Especially in a town like Vegas.
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